Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen is experiencing overcast conditions with humidity at 83% and cloud cover near 91%, creating a hot environment where the RealFeel temperature reaches 95°F despite the current air temperature sitting at 84°F[2]. This immediate atmospheric pressure suggests the city is already in a high-heat phase, yet the market currently assigns a 0% probability to any outcome other than the frontrunner, which is 29°C[1]. The crowd’s absolute confidence in this specific range ignores the volatility typical of late-July weather in the Pearl River Delta, where historical data often shows swings of several degrees depending on sudden tropical moisture influxes or clearing skies.

Historical patterns for Shenzhen in mid-July frequently see temperatures hovering between 28°C and 32°C, making the 29°C frontrunner a statistically plausible median rather than a guaranteed certainty[1]. Traders should monitor the upcoming 24-hour forecast from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns that could push the peak temperature outside the 29°C bracket[1]. With the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 20 July 2026, the next critical catalyst is the official daily high temperature release for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, which will definitively confirm if the current 0% probability on alternative ranges was a premature dismissal of weather variability[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.