Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport is already running hot, with AccuWeather showing 88°F and humid conditions in the morning hours, which makes the day’s high sensitive to how quickly cloud cover, sea breeze, and late-morning heating evolve.[1] Because this market resolves to the highest temperature at the airport station rather than citywide readings, the key number is the one-off peak reached during the day, not the average feel or a broader urban estimate.[1]

The 0% crowd-implied probability on the current “YES” side is best read as a reflection of the market’s structure, not as evidence that a high temperature is impossible. For a weather market, the outcome is usually driven by whether the station touches the relevant band at any point before the settlement window closes, so even modest strengthening of sunshine or a delayed coastal breeze can shift the final reading materially.[1] Historical comparison is limited here because the resolution source is specific to Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport and the exact band is only knowable from the day’s observed maximum on Wunderground, but the present setup points to a warm, potentially range-sensitive afternoon rather than a low-volatility temperature day.[1]

Traders should watch the live Wunderground history page for the airport station, because the market resolves off that source and the maximum can be set well before the official end of the settlement window if temperatures peak earlier in the day.[1] Any changes in local cloud cover, rainfall, or onshore flow are the main catalysts, since those determine whether the station pushes higher after the current 88°F reading or levels off below the next range threshold.[1]

Sources: 1

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 22?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.