Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s heat on 24 July is usually shaped by a humid subtropical summer, with July highs typically around 32°C and frequent rain, so the day’s maximum is often decided as much by cloud cover and showers as by raw sunshine.[1][4][5] At the airport station, the relevant figure is the single highest reading set before the settlement cut-off, so an early spike above the seasonal norm can matter even if later storms cool the afternoon quickly.

The current 0% implied probability for the lowest temperature band looks hard to square with the climatology, because July daily highs in Shenzhen are commonly in the high 20s to low 30s Celsius rather than near cooler ranges.[1][4] Comparable July patterns also show the city’s wet-day chance staying high through the month, which tends to cap extremes but still leaves room for a brief hot burst before convection builds.[4][5]

For traders, the main catalyst is the day’s short-term forecast and whether showers arrive early enough to suppress the maximum, or hold off until after the warmest part of the day.[2][5] The Met Office currently shows Shenzhen around 30°C with light showers, which points to a warm baseline but also highlights rainfall risk, while the airport’s final reported high on Wunderground will be the settlement reference.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 24?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.