Highest temperature in Taipei on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 20 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station will determine the settlement of this market. The resolution will draw from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary section, a distinction that matters when discrepancies arise between the two datasets. Taipei's August climate is characterised by hot, humid conditions typical of subtropical East Asia, with daily highs routinely exceeding 33°C during the summer monsoon season.

Historical August temperatures at Songshan Airport show considerable consistency year to year. Over the past decade, the highest daily readings in August have clustered between 35–37°C, with extreme outliers above 38°C occurring roughly once every three to four years during particularly intense heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool August or treating the market as a placeholder pending clearer range definitions. Comparable August periods in 2023 and 2024 saw peak temperatures of 36.5°C and 37.2°C respectively, providing empirical anchors for assessing which temperature bands carry genuine predictive weight.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during July and early August 2026, as typhoons or their remnants can suppress temperatures significantly. Seasonal forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration, typically released in early August, will offer updated guidance on monsoon intensity and heat dome formation. The specific choice of Songshan Airport as the measuring station—rather than other Taipei sites—locks resolution to a single, publicly auditable source, eliminating venue ambiguity but requiring confirmation of any station maintenance or instrument changes that might affect readings.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Taipei on August 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

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