Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s late-summer heat is usually governed by a narrow band rather than extreme spikes, which is why a crowd-implied 0% for the top temperature bin looks aggressive rather than impossible. Weather Underground’s resolution source is Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, and nearby official data from the Japan Meteorological Agency already shows a 1 August peak of 35.6°C at Haneda, alongside much cooler readings earlier in the month, underlining how quickly maritime cloud cover and showers can pull the daily maximum back towards the low 30s.[5][6]

The historical frame points to a market that should be read through the lens of August climatology, not headlines about national records. Tokyo’s August average high is around 31°C, with the month typically described as the hottest in the city, while recent regional reporting has focused on Japan’s exceptional heat overall, including record national temperatures and prolonged 35°C-plus spells elsewhere.[9][4][13] That makes 30–31°C the statistical centre of gravity, but it also leaves room for a warmer outcome if the Pacific high strengthens and afternoon cloud is delayed.

The main catalysts are the day’s forecast evolution and any last-minute revisions before the first datapoint for 11 August is published, since this market settles on the highest observed reading rather than a summary high/low figure.[6] Traders should watch for changes in cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, and thunderstorm risk, because those are the factors most likely to cap the afternoon maximum near the 30s rather than push it higher.[1][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

When do sports markets resolve?

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