Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's peak temperature on 12 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, which records granular hourly readings rather than the rounded summary figures. The settlement hinges on identifying the single highest temperature recorded across the full calendar day at this specific station.

August in Tokyo typically sees daily highs between 32–35°C, with extreme heat events occasionally pushing toward 37–38°C. Historical data from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows that temperatures exceeding 36°C occur roughly once every three to five years during peak summer months, whilst readings above 38°C remain relatively rare at Haneda specifically, which sits closer to coastal influences than central Tokyo. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either a narrow resolution band or scepticism about extreme heat materialising on this particular date.

The key variable affecting August 2026 temperatures will be the Pacific high-pressure system's positioning and intensity during the second week of the month. Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in late July and early August, which typically provide reliable 10–14 day outlooks for heat events. El Niño or La Niña conditions heading into northern hemisphere summer can shift baseline temperatures by 1–2°C, making seasonal climate indices worth tracking from spring onwards. Haneda's coastal location means sea-surface temperatures and wind patterns from the Pacific will materially influence whether the station experiences the extreme heat that inland Tokyo sometimes records.

Methodology

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