Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 15 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, the primary resolution source for any discrepancies with summary data. The market currently reflects 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting traders have not yet priced in expectations for this specific date.

Mid-August temperatures in Tokyo historically cluster in the 32–36°C range, with occasional peaks above 37°C during heat waves. Data from the past decade shows 15 August has typically recorded highs between 33–35°C, though the 2010 heat wave pushed readings to 39.9°C on that date. These precedents establish the baseline against which traders should calibrate their forecasts, particularly given Tokyo's urban heat island effect and the timing within the peak summer season.

The Japan Meteorological Agency's seasonal outlooks and any issued heat wave warnings in late July 2026 will be critical signals for traders. Atmospheric patterns developing in early August—particularly the position and strength of the Pacific high-pressure system—determine whether conditions favour typical summer temperatures or anomalous heat. Traders should monitor forecasts from late July onwards, as medium-range models become more reliable within two weeks of the settlement date. Any official heat wave alerts from JMA would substantially shift probability distributions upwards across higher temperature ranges.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

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UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.