Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo Haneda Airport has already logged an early-August high of **35.6°C** on 1 August and **33.0°C** on 2 August, so the live market is being priced against a hot baseline rather than a cool start to the month.[1] That matters because the resolution source is the Haneda station, not central Tokyo, and airport readings can run a little differently from the city centre on any given day.[1][3]

The current **0% YES** implied probability looks detached from both the forecast and recent climate context. AccuWeather has Tokyo at around **86–88°F** for 5–8 August, which is roughly **30–31°C**, while other August guides place Tokyo’s typical maximum near **31°C** and note that hotter spells often push above **30°C**.[2][7][10] In practice, that makes the main live landing zones look like the low-30s rather than anything cold enough to justify a zero-probability view.[2][10]

For traders, the key catalysts are the overnight and morning forecast updates, plus any shift in humidity, cloud cover, or sea-breeze influence that could cap the afternoon peak. Timeanddate’s hourly outlook for 5 August shows temperatures already near the high 20s Celsius by late morning, with midday heat close to **31°C**, which leaves room for either a modest overshoot or a stall if cloud builds faster than expected.[8] Japan’s recent summers have also been marked by extreme heat and official warnings, so a broad warm bias remains credible even if the exact Haneda high still depends on short-range model revisions.[12][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.