Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s weather on 6 August is being measured by the highest temperature at Haneda Airport, and the market is currently assigning 0% to **YES**, which implies traders do not see the day as a candidate for an extreme upside surprise. Official forecasts and history both point to a warm but fairly ordinary August outcome rather than a record-chasing spike: JMA’s Tokyo-area August readings already show highs in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius at several stations, while forecast services cluster Tokyo’s peak around 32–34°C for the day. [1][2][3][4]

That context matters because the settlement is not based on a citywide average but on the single highest reading at the airport station, which can differ from central Tokyo and from broader regional forecasts. Haneda’s daily highs in early August are often a few degrees below the hottest inland stations, so the key question is whether daytime heating is strong enough to push the airport into the upper 30s band, not whether Tokyo as a whole feels hot. The market also resolved 100% on 29°C for 4 August, underlining how quickly a seemingly warm summer day can still land well below the higher temperature buckets when cloud cover or marine influence limits the peak. [1][17]

For traders, the main catalysts are the short-range forecast updates, any shift in cloud, rain, or wind patterns over Tokyo Bay, and the timing of the day’s maximum before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes. JMA’s live daily data and hour-by-hour observations are the most relevant inputs, because a late-afternoon spike is what would move the result into a higher bucket; if forecasts hold near 32–33°C, the outcome remains concentrated in the lower bands rather than the top end. [1][3][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

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