Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s weather for the afternoon window will be set by the **highest reading at Haneda Airport**, not the broader city summary, so a 0% yes price mainly reflects how narrow the settlement rule is rather than a statement that heat is impossible. August in Tokyo is normally hot and humid, with average daytime highs around 31°C, and recent daily data from the Japan Meteorological Agency already show the city region printing mid-to-high 30s elsewhere in the prefecture this month, including 35.6°C at Haneda on 1 August and 33.0°C on 2 August. [1][4][5]

Comparable Japanese heat episodes show how quickly terminal readings can shift when the Pacific High strengthens: Reuters reported in July that Japan had already seen its first brutally hot days of 2026, while other outlets noted multiple 40°C readings inland as the season turned severe. [16][14] For a Haneda-specific outcome, the key question is not whether Tokyo is warm, but whether airport-side conditions peak above the market’s target range during the observation period; that depends far more on synoptic pressure, cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, and any late-morning convection than on the monthly average. [17][4]

Traders should watch for updated short-range forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency, because the settlement source is the Daily Observations record for Tokyo Haneda Airport and the market resolves on the day’s single highest temperature. [1][3] AccuWeather’s Tokyo pages also point to continued August warmth around the upper 20s to high 30s Celsius, which keeps the upside open if a clear, dry, and still afternoon develops, but a maritime breeze or passing cloud can cap the airport reading well below inland maxima. [2][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.