Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo is set to experience its peak summer heat on 13 July 2026, with the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station expected to record daily highs between 29°C and 33°C based on current forecasts. The crowd-implied 0% probability for any specific outcome above 28°C appears misaligned with seasonal norms, as July in this region consistently delivers temperatures well into the 30s. Historical data from recent years shows Haneda frequently hitting 34°C–36°C in mid-July, while Japan’s all-time record of 41.2°C (set in Tamba City in 2025) confirms the country’s capacity for extreme heat during this period [5][8].

Traders should monitor the Met Office’s 7-day forecast updates for Tokyo Haneda, which currently project a maximum daytime temperature of 31°C for the settlement date, with a secondary scenario of 33°C if heatwave conditions intensify [4]. The primary catalyst is the release of the official Wunderground daily record for RJTT on 13 July, which will determine settlement; any deviation from the 30–32°C range would signal an anomalous cooling event. AccuWeather’s monthly outlook for Haneda in July 2026 also supports highs of 76°–91°F (24.4°C–32.8°C), reinforcing the likelihood of temperatures clustering around 31°C rather than remaining below 29°C [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.