Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s late-July heat makes a **35°C** print the base case rather than an outlier, which is consistent with the market’s 97% crowd lean towards that band. Seasonal guides for Tokyo in July put average highs around **25–33°C**, with some days pushing higher because humidity is extreme and heat index conditions can feel much hotter than the thermometer reading suggests.[2][4] That backdrop explains why the market is pricing away from the lower brackets and concentrating around the mid-30s, especially for a single-day maximum at Haneda.[1][2]

The comparable cases that matter are not just “hot summer” days, but the subset where Tokyo gets a genuine heat surge on top of the already humid baseline. July is also the rainy season in Tokyo, so cloud cover and showers can cap extremes on some days, yet the same sources note that highs around **36°C** are still plausible when the weather breaks warm and sticky.[4] In that context, a 0% reading for the highest bracket reflects the market’s view that an exceptional spike above the current favourite is very unlikely, though not impossible if the day runs hotter than recent July norms.[1][4]

For traders, the key catalysts are the day’s evolving temperature trend at Haneda, the timing of any weather warnings, and whether rain or cloud cover lingers through the peak heating hours. Travel and weather guides consistently point to the hottest stretch landing late morning to mid-afternoon, with advice to expect conditions to be strongest around **11:00–15:00** local time, so any upward revision usually depends on how quickly the city clears and how much sunshine develops after sunrise.[2][3] If early measurements are already close to the mid-30s, the probability of the top band becomes more sensitive to afternoon insolation and sea-breeze effects than to broad seasonal averages.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 23?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.