Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's peak temperature on 28 July 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. July represents the height of Japan's summer season, when the Kanto region typically experiences sustained heat and humidity driven by Pacific high-pressure systems and occasional tropical air masses from the south.

Historical records show Tokyo's July temperatures have ranged considerably. The city recorded 37.5°C on 23 July 2023 and 36.4°C on 16 August 2023, though such extremes remain outliers rather than routine occurrences. More typical late-July highs cluster between 32–35°C, with the long-term average maximum for the month around 32.2°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect a specific temperature threshold to be missed, though the exact range boundaries remain unclear from the market description provided.

Catalysts affecting the outcome include the Pacific typhoon season's trajectory—active systems can either suppress temperatures through cloud cover and rainfall or, conversely, drive extreme heat through atmospheric dynamics. Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts, typically issued 10–14 days before the target date, will provide the most reliable guidance on pressure patterns and moisture availability. Real-time monitoring of upper-atmosphere conditions and sea-surface temperatures in late June and early July will signal whether anomalous heat or cooler-than-average conditions are likely to dominate the specific 24-hour window.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.