Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo Haneda’s highest temperature on 31 July will be set by whatever the airport actually reaches before the Wunderground settlement cut-off, with the market resolving from the day’s recorded peak rather than a forecast or citywide average. The current 0% Yes implies traders expect the final value to land outside the chosen range, but that reading sits on the underlying weather rather than on any assurance of a cool day.[4][7]

The useful historical frame is that Tokyo’s late-July highs are often in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, while recent summers have produced more extreme spikes across Japan. Tokyo’s own 31 July daily maximum at the JMA station reached 33.4°C in 2025, and broader context shows July 2025 was Japan’s hottest on record, with a national peak of 41.2°C elsewhere in Hyōgo, underlining how quickly temperature distributions can shift in heatwave conditions.[7][10][16] For Haneda specifically, the airport tends to run a little below inland Tokyo on the hottest afternoons, which makes very high bands dependent on exceptional synoptic heat and favourable local conditions rather than a routine summer day.[7][13]

Traders should watch the Tokyo forecast for the rest of the day, especially the timing and strength of afternoon heating, cloud cover, sea breeze penetration, and any rain band that caps the maximum early. Any Bureau of Meteorology-style headline on a wider Japan heatwave, or a late update from local forecasters about record heat across the Kanto region, would matter because Haneda’s daily high is usually decided in a narrow midday-to-afternoon window rather than at night.[6][10][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

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Can I bet on individual matches?

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What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

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Which sports markets are available?

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How fast do sports winnings settle?

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