Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s July 5, 2026, heat event hinges on whether the city breaks its typical summer ceiling amid the lingering rainy season. Historical data shows Tokyo’s average maximum in July sits near 28°C, with Haneda Airport often recording highs between 29°C and 33°C during this period[1][10]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome—presumably meaning a temperature above a specific threshold—appears misaligned with past patterns, as Haneda has routinely exceeded 30°C in recent years, even during wet spells[2][9]. Traders should note that 2026’s forecast for Haneda includes daily highs reaching 91°F (33°C), suggesting the threshold for “YES” may be set unrealistically high or the market misunderstands the baseline[2].

Key catalysts include real-time updates from Wunderground on July 5, which will confirm the official highest temperature at Haneda Airport Station[1]. Weather.com forecasts light rain and 49% precipitation probability for Sunday, July 5, which could suppress peak temperatures if showers intensify[5]. However, JAL has flagged potential flight delays at Tokyo airports due to bad weather on that date, hinting at unstable conditions that might still allow for brief heat spikes[7]. Traders must monitor Wunderground’s hourly data release post-12:00 UTC, as sudden cloud cover or rain bursts could alter the final reading, while stable sea breezes might preserve higher temps[1][10]. The resolution depends entirely on this single data point, making timing and source reliability critical.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.