Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s July climate is defined by intense heat and humidity, with daytime highs typically reaching 30°C (86°F) and overnight lows around 23°C (73°F)[3]. Historical data for Haneda Airport shows average July highs of 85°F (29.4°C), with daily peaks frequently exceeding 30°C during peak summer months[2][6]. The current market assigning a 0% probability to temperatures below 19°C aligns with these norms, as summer averages in Tokyo range from 25°C to 30°C, and temperatures often surpass 30°C in July[2][4].

Traders should monitor the lingering rainy season, which can bring scattered showers and temporarily suppress temperatures, though humidity remains high between 78% and 83%[2][7]. Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate frequent scattered showers with maximum temperatures near 29°C, suggesting variability but not a drop to sub-20°C levels[7]. Key dependencies include the transition from the plum rain season to peak summer heat, where late July can see highs of 37°C to 38°C, reinforcing the implausibility of the lowest temperature bracket[5]. No credible weather model currently supports a 19°C or below outcome for Haneda on 6 July 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.