Highest temperature in Wellington on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s **1 August** temperature is usually a winter-morning question rather than a genuine heat event: long-run August normals for the city sit around **10–12°C** for daytime highs, with monthly average highs near **12.9–13.8°C** depending on the dataset, and record August highs still only reaching the **mid-to-high teens** rather than anything extreme.[1][3][10][14] That history makes a very low ceiling on this market plausible, because the settlement source is the **Wellington Intl Airport Station** and the event window ends at noon UTC, which covers the coldest part of the local day in New Zealand winter.

For traders, the key watchpoint is whether a **short-lived warm airflow** or clear-sky, light-wind setup develops over the airport ahead of the morning peak, since Wellington’s temperatures are strongly shaped by wind and cloud cover.[1][5][14] Any forecast shift in the last 24 hours, especially a move towards sunshine and reduced southerlies, would matter more than broad seasonal averages. The crowd’s **0% YES** implies the market is treating an unusually warm reading as almost impossible, but the historical frame shows that August warmth is rare rather than absent, with past monthly maxima reported up to **18°C** in some datasets and **14.4°C** in a recent August example.[7][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wellington on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.