Highest temperature in Wellington on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington's maximum temperature on 14 August 2026 will be measured at Wellington International Airport using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, the official resolution standard for this market. August is Wellington's coldest month, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 11–13°C, though occasional warm northerly flows can push readings into the mid-teens.

The 0% crowd probability reflects the specificity of predicting an exact temperature range on a single future date. Wellington's August climate is relatively stable; the airport's 30-year August average high sits around 12.1°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 16°C or falling below 8°C. Previous August 14ths offer limited direct precedent—weather patterns shift annually—but the broader August dataset shows that temperatures above 18°C occur in fewer than 5% of cases historically. Traders should note that the Daily Observations table often records sub-hourly readings that may differ from the Day High & Low summary section, creating potential resolution variance.

The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 14 August 2026, meaning traders have until the morning of that date to adjust positions based on overnight forecasts. Weather Underground's station data feeds in real time, so final readings become available shortly after the settlement deadline. Significant northerly wind patterns—which occasionally deliver warm air masses to the Wellington region—would be the primary catalyst for temperatures exceeding typical August ranges, though such events remain statistically uncommon for this month.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wellington on August 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

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