Highest temperature in Wellington on June 21?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Wellington International Airport is in its cool season in late June, and the historical average daily high is below 57°F, so a mild reading would already be above the local norm for this time of year.[1] The market settles on the day’s *highest* temperature at Wellington Intl Airport Station, not the midday reading, which matters because the afternoon peak can be several degrees above the morning minimum even in a generally cool winter pattern.[2]

The current 0% YES price implies the crowd sees the listed temperature bands as very unlikely to be reached, which is consistent with the station’s winter climatology rather than any single-day forecast.[1][2] For context, Wellington’s record warmth can still move sharply on rare extremes: NIWA notes Wellington (Kelburn) reached 30.3°C on the same day during the 2017 heat event, showing how quickly outcomes can diverge from seasonal averages when a warm northerly flow establishes itself.[6]

What traders should watch is the forecast setup over the next 24-72 hours: the strength and timing of any northerly or southerly change, cloud cover, and whether marine air keeps the airport capped below the city’s inland temperatures. The settlement source is Wunderground’s daily history page for Wellington Intl Airport Station, so late updates to that station’s hourly observations are the key dependency rather than broader regional averages.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.