Highest temperature in Wellington on June 4?

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Market context

Wellington's highest temperature on 4 June 2026 will be measured at the international airport weather station and resolved against historical records from Wunderground. June falls within Wellington's late autumn period, when mean maximum temperatures typically range between 12–14°C, though daily variation remains substantial depending on synoptic patterns and wind direction from the Cook Strait.

Historical data from Wellington Airport shows June extremes have reached into the low 20s Celsius during warm northwesterly flow, whilst cold southerly outbreaks can suppress maxima below 8°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the market's lowest temperature band to capture the day's high, reflecting baseline seasonal expectations. However, June weather systems tracking across the lower North Island can produce sharp temperature swings; a pre-winter warm spell or cold front passage would materially shift outcomes across the available ranges.

Traders should monitor MetService and NIWA forecasts from late May onwards, as these typically provide reliable 7–10 day outlooks for New Zealand's lower North Island. The Southern Oscillation Index and sea surface temperatures around New Zealand will influence whether June 4 falls within a warmer or cooler phase of the month. Wind direction proves critical—northwesterlies advect warmer air from lower latitudes, whilst southerlies bring Antarctic influence. Settlement depends entirely on the official Wunderground record for Wellington Airport, which remains the authoritative source for aviation and climate data in the region.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.