Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wuhan will experience peak summer heat on 19 July 2026, with the settlement depending on the highest temperature recorded at Tianhe International Airport Station throughout that calendar day. The airport weather station serves as the official reference point for the city's meteorological records and sits at 27 metres elevation in the eastern suburbs, an area that typically records temperatures 1–2°C higher than central urban zones due to reduced vegetation and increased concrete surfaces.

Wuhan's July climatology shows consistent extremes. Over the past three decades, the city has recorded maximum temperatures exceeding 38°C on roughly 60% of July days, with the historical record for any July day standing at 42.3°C in 2013. The 35–38°C range captures approximately 25% of July occurrences, whilst readings below 35°C account for fewer than 15% of cases. The 0% crowd probability currently assigned suggests either a technical issue with market setup or an expectation of unusually cool conditions—a significant departure from established patterns.

Key variables affecting the 19 July reading include the East Asian summer monsoon's positioning, any tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific during early-to-mid July, and the strength of the Tibetan high-pressure system. Meteorological forecasts become reliable only 7–10 days before the settlement date. Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration updates and regional typhoon advisories from late June onwards, as any system tracking towards central China could suppress temperatures substantially below the historical median.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.