Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 August 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the lowest temperature for that date in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that minimum reading, measured to one decimal place and published in the Observatory's Daily Extract once the day's meteorological data is finalised.

Hong Kong's August temperatures are constrained by the region's subtropical climate and monsoon patterns. Historical August minima typically range between 24°C and 27°C, with the Observatory's records showing little variation in daily lows during this peak summer month. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the minimum to fall outside the lowest available band—likely reflecting confidence that August heat will prevent exceptionally cool overnight conditions. Comparable August dates from recent years provide the most reliable benchmark; the Observatory's climate archive shows consistent patterns across the past two decades, with extreme departures from the 25–26°C range rare during this season.

Traders should monitor the monsoon forecast issued by the Hong Kong Observatory in early August 2026, as shifts in wind patterns or tropical cyclone activity could alter overnight cooling. The settlement window closes at midday on 17 August, but final temperature data may not appear in the Daily Extract until several days later, delaying resolution. Any significant weather system affecting the region—including remnants of tropical storms or unusual pressure systems—would be the primary catalyst for movement away from the current consensus.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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