Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong is set up for a very warm night minimum rather than a cold one: the Hong Kong Observatory’s 9-day forecast for 8 August shows mostly fine weather, extreme daytime heat and a range of 28°C to 35°C, while AccuWeather’s same-day forecast points to a low near 83°F, or about 28.3°C. Those readings sit comfortably inside the usual August pattern, when the city’s average low is around 81°F and monthly lows commonly stay in the high 20s Celsius. [4][2][1][9]

That background helps explain why the market’s 0% YES price is consistent with history. Hong Kong’s August climate is typically hot, humid and storm-prone rather than cool, and even an unusually unsettled day often leaves the overnight minimum well above 25°C. The Observatory’s own August 2024 summary described the month as exceptionally hot, with a mean daily minimum of 27.7°C, reinforcing how hard it is for the lowest temperature on an August day to land in a genuinely cool range. [14][16][15]

For traders, the main catalysts are the Observatory’s updated forecasts, any late-day thunderstorm or rain band that briefly cuts temperatures, and the eventual Daily Extract used for settlement. The city’s official forecast for 8 August mentions isolated showers and thunderstorms later, but the current published range still implies a minimum far above any low-temperature bucket below the mid-20s Celsius. The market cannot resolve until the Hong Kong Observatory publishes the final Daily Extract for the date. [8][4][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

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