Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 9?

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Market context

Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on 9 August will be taken from the Hong Kong Observatory’s final “Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)” reading for that date, and the market cannot settle until the Daily Extract is published. August in Hong Kong is usually warm even before the day warms up: the Observatory’s normals put 9 August at a mean minimum of 28.6°C, which is far above any cool-range outcome and helps explain why the current crowd price is pinned at 0% for a low-temperature band outcome.[2][17]

For context, recent and comparable August readings have also sat well above the settlement ranges typically used in these markets. Timeanddate’s Hong Kong history shows a minimum of 84°F, about 28.9°C, on 8 August, while the Observatory’s 2024 August summary described the period 3–9 August as persistently very hot under an upper-level anticyclone, with the month’s mean daily minimum at 27.7°C.[1][12] That combination of late-summer heat and a historically elevated night-time baseline means any sub-20s Celsius minimum would be an outlier, not a normal read-through from seasonal averages.[2][12]

The main catalysts are meteorological rather than market-driven: whether a tropical disturbance, cloud cover, or a rain band suppresses the overnight floor before the Observatory’s morning observation, and whether the settled weather pattern shifts enough to break the usual warm minima. The Observatory’s regional forecasts and daily updates are the relevant dependencies to watch for the overnight period into the morning, because once the final extract is posted the outcome is fixed by the recorded minimum, not by daytime heat.[4][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

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