Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the lowest temperature in Hong Kong on 13 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This reading forms the basis for settlement, with the actual minimum temperature falling into one of several defined ranges. The Observatory's official "Absolute Daily Min" figure from the Daily Extract publication serves as the sole authoritative source.

July in Hong Kong typically sees minimum temperatures between 26°C and 28°C, though readings occasionally dip lower during unusual weather patterns. Historical data from the Observatory shows that July minimums below 25°C occur rarely, roughly once per decade during the month. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the lowest temperature to fall outside whichever range represents the lowest bracket in the market's resolution categories. This positioning reflects the statistical rarity of exceptionally cool nights during Hong Kong's peak summer season.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone forecasts and monsoon patterns in the weeks preceding mid-July 2026, as these systems can substantially lower overnight temperatures. The Southwest Monsoon typically dominates July conditions, and any deviation towards stronger northeasterly flow or an approaching typhoon would increase the likelihood of cooler minimums. The Observatory publishes extended forecasts roughly ten days in advance; material shifts in predicted weather patterns during early July could shift market expectations. Settlement depends entirely on the Observatory's finalised Daily Extract publication, which typically appears within days of the measurement date.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.