GPT-5.6 released by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

OpenAI has not issued an official announcement for GPT-5.6, yet internal routing logs in its Codex backend briefly exposed the model identifier before it vanished, confirming the artifact exists and is being tested behind closed doors[2]. While prediction markets on Polymarket price a public release by 30 June at 89% probability, the company has made no system card, release notes, or API listing appear to date[1][6]. This mirrors the pattern seen with GPT-5.4 and GPT-5.5, where backend traces surfaced weeks before formal launches, compressing the flagship cadence from multi-month cycles to roughly six weeks[1].

Traders should monitor Codex backend logs for the first public version-bump, as the same routing entries that leaked GPT-5.6 will likely signal its official rollout[2]. The planned launch window centres on 22–28 June, with 25 June identified as the intended date for the kindle-alpha release candidate[7]. OpenAI’s chief scientist Jakub Pachocki has described the model as a “meaningful improvement” over GPT-5.5, focusing on agentic workflows and a 1.5M-token context window rather than single-turn chat gains[1]. The release aligns with broader ChatGPT overhauls and concurrent IPO preparations, though no official timeline for public availability has been confirmed[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.