Bitcoin price on June 13?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

This market settles on the Binance BTC/USDT closing price at noon Eastern Time on 13 June 2026, using the 1-minute candle data from the exchange's standard interface. The current 0% implied probability reflects the substantial uncertainty inherent in predicting a specific asset price nearly two years forward, where countless macroeconomic shifts, regulatory developments, and market dynamics remain unknowable.

Bitcoin's historical volatility provides limited guidance for pinpointing prices across such extended timeframes. Over comparable two-year windows, BTC has experienced swings exceeding 200%, making bracket-based predictions highly sensitive to the chosen price ranges. The 2024–2026 period will encompass multiple US Federal Reserve policy cycles, potential shifts in institutional adoption patterns, and evolving cryptocurrency regulation across major jurisdictions—all factors that have historically moved spot prices substantially. Previous instances of long-dated Bitcoin predictions have typically seen probability mass concentrate around current price levels or extrapolations of recent trends, though these have frequently proven poor guides once settlement approaches.

Key catalysts traders should monitor include announcements from major central banks regarding digital asset frameworks, changes to US tax treatment of cryptocurrency holdings, and developments in Bitcoin's technical adoption (such as layer-2 scaling solutions). Regulatory clarity from the SEC and CFTC will likely influence institutional positioning ahead of mid-2026. Macroeconomic data releases affecting inflation expectations and interest rates should also factor into any assessment, given their historical correlation with risk-asset valuations. The specific noon ET timestamp means traders must account for intraday volatility patterns on Binance, which can differ materially from 24-hour average prices.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.