Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sport Prediction Pick polygram.ink |
1% | 99% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Sport Prediction → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
1% | 99% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Sport Prediction → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Sport Prediction → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Sport Prediction → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Sport Prediction → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Sport Prediction.
Active sub-markets
| Qatar (-1.5) | 1% Qatar | 99% Switzerland |
| Switzerland (-1.5) | 59% Switzerland | 42% Qatar |
| Qatar (-2.5) | 1% Qatar | 99% Switzerland |
| Switzerland (-2.5) | 32% Switzerland | 69% Qatar |
| O/U 0.5 | 96% Over | 4% Under |
| O/U 1.5 | 82% Over | 19% Under |
Market context
Qatar will face Switzerland in a FIFA World Cup group-stage match on 13 June 2026, with the fixture scheduled for 15:00 ET. The 2% implied probability for "More Markets" reflects trader expectation that additional betting markets on this specific fixture will not materialise on this platform by the settlement deadline.
Historical precedent suggests that World Cup matches between lower-ranked nations or those with limited commercial draw often receive minimal market expansion beyond standard match outcomes. Qatar, ranked 50th in the FIFA standings, and Switzerland, ranked 19th, lack the commercial magnetism of fixtures involving traditional powerhouses. During the 2022 World Cup, several group-stage matches involving smaller confederations saw limited derivative market creation, with platforms concentrating liquidity on headline fixtures. The 2% probability implies traders view this match as unlikely to generate sufficient interest to justify additional market development.
Catalysts affecting settlement include FIFA's official fixture confirmation and any late scheduling changes, though the June 2026 date remains locked in the preliminary tournament calendar. Platform-specific factors matter more: whether sportprediction.bet's operators decide to expand coverage based on user demand or commercial partnerships. Recent reporting from ESPN's World Cup coverage desk indicates that market proliferation typically follows major-nation involvement rather than tournament stage alone. Traders should monitor whether Qatar or Switzerland experiences unexpected ranking improvements or coaching upheaval between now and the tournament, as such developments occasionally trigger broader commercial interest in previously overlooked fixtures.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?
- Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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