Bitcoin price on June 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the final closing price of Bitcoin on Binance at noon Eastern Time on 25 June 2026, which determines whether the market resolves to a specific price bracket or to "No". Current crowd-implied probability sits at just 1% for the "Yes" outcome, suggesting traders expect the price to fall outside the targeted range.

Historical data frames this low probability sharply: Bitcoin peaked at $126,198 in October 2025 but has since declined, with the price on 23 June 2026 recorded at $62,249.65, a drop of nearly $43,000 from a year prior[1]. On 25 June 2026, the daily close was $60,909, and Polymarket traders currently assign a 64% probability to the $60,000–$62,000 bracket, indicating the market expects consolidation in that range rather than a breakout[2][3].

Traders should watch for announcements on US monetary policy, institutional adoption trends, and any shifts in global M2 liquidity, which analysts cite as key drivers for mid-2026 price movements[5]. Recent volatility, including a 2.04% daily drop on 24 June, underscores sensitivity to macroeconomic dependencies[3]. With the settlement window ending at 16:00 UTC on 25 June 2026, any unexpected regulatory news or exchange-specific disruptions could alter the final close significantly[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on June 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.