Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is a Counter-Strike 2 lower-bracket quarterfinal match between AM Gaming and Eternal Fire, scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on 24 June 2026 in the Super DraculaN Group A. Despite the market’s current 100% YES crowd-implied probability favouring AM Gaming, historical data suggests a more contested outcome: AM Gaming defeated Eternal Fire 2–0 in the NODWIN Clutch Series Season 4 on 26 January 2026, but Eternal Fire won their most recent H2H encounter 2–1 in the A1 Gaming League Season 11 on 25 January 2026[4][6]. This pattern of alternating results mirrors other lower-tier CS2 matchups where form swings sharply between tournaments, making a 100% certainty unusually aggressive unless a key roster change or absence has occurred post-January.

Traders should monitor official team announcements for any late coaching adjustments, player absences, or schedule shifts before the match begins, as these catalysts can rapidly alter implied probabilities. Liquipedia’s match logs confirm Eternal Fire’s recent activity across B-Tier events, indicating they remain competitive despite January’s loss to AM Gaming[4]. No major roster changes have been publicly reported as of 24 June, but EGamersWorld’s match history notes Eternal Fire’s resilience in close maps, including a 13–8 first-map victory over Nemiga in BC.Game Masters Season 1[2]. Until verified updates emerge, the 100% probability likely reflects early market bias rather than a settled real-world advantage.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.