Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 90% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 1% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 1% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: LVLUP (-1.5) vs Zero Tenacity (+1.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
Market context
Level UP meet Zero Tenacity in a BO3 at EPL Masters Group B, with the market already pricing a near-certain Level UP win despite the earlier July 22 head-to-head on similar data favouring Zero Tenacity. The reason traders should treat that 100% crowd view cautiously is that these teams have produced split signals over the summer: Zero Tenacity had the stronger longer-run record and a clear head-to-head edge in several previews, but Level UP beat them 2-1 in their most recent meeting, showing that form and match-up can move quickly in Dota 2. The same series also shows why a single result can distort expectations when line-ups and preparation cycles change between fixtures.[2][4][10][11]
For context, the recent record is mixed rather than dominant on either side. Bo3 and Strafe previews around the previous meeting described Zero Tenacity as the more established side, with better recent results and a repeated ability to take series off Level UP, while Level UP were framed as the more volatile team, coming in off poorer month-long form but with experience against stronger opposition.[2][4][5] DLTV also noted roster turnover on both teams in the build-up to that match, including Level UP’s queuezy departure and a change in the Zero Tenacity core, which is the kind of absence or substitution that can matter more than raw ranking alone.[9]
The main catalysts now are line-up confirmation, any last-minute forfeit risk, and whether the series proceeds on schedule inside the settlement window. The previous matchup was covered as a live BO3 with a decisive 2-1 outcome for Level UP, so the market should stay tied to official start status and completion rather than assuming an automatic result from pre-match odds or rankings.[1][10][11] If either side announces a stand-in, delays the fixture, or the series is interrupted, those operational details may matter as much as competitive form for settlement risk.[9][12]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Dota 2: Level UP vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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