Ethereum above 2026 on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on Ethereum's closing price on the Binance ETH/USDT pair at the 1-minute candle for noon Eastern Time on 13 June 2026. The settlement hinges on a single data point: whether that specific candle's close exceeds the threshold price embedded in the market title. Resolution draws exclusively from Binance's official candle data, excluding other exchanges or trading pairs that may show divergent prices at that moment.

The 100% crowd probability reflects the difficulty in predicting precise intraday price action two years forward. Historical precedent suggests such extreme confidence in distant price predictions typically reflects either a threshold set well below current market expectations or uncertainty about the market's ability to price in long-term volatility. Ethereum's price has demonstrated substantial intraday variance—moves of 5–15% within single trading sessions are not uncommon during periods of elevated volatility—meaning even modest threshold prices can face execution risk across a two-year window.

Traders monitoring this market should track Ethereum's macroeconomic drivers: regulatory developments affecting spot ETF approvals, changes to staking yields, and shifts in layer-2 adoption metrics. Network upgrades or security incidents could materially affect price trajectories. Binance's operational status on the settlement date is also material; exchange outages or data feed disruptions have historically created resolution ambiguity, though Binance's redundancy systems make this unlikely. The specific noon ET timestamp creates a dependency on US market hours overlap with global trading activity, when liquidity typically peaks.

Methodology

This page reviews Ethereum above 2026 on June 13? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.