Haiti vs. Scotland

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 13 June. The 63% probability assigned to a Haiti victory reflects the market's assessment of relative strength, though the fixture sits within a compressed tournament window where form volatility and squad availability carry outsized weight.

Scotland's recent World Cup and European Championship campaigns have yielded mixed results; they failed to progress beyond the group stage at Qatar 2022 and exited Euro 2024 in the opening round. Haiti, conversely, qualified for the 2026 tournament after a 16-year absence from the World Cup, having last appeared in 2010. Historical precedent suggests that newly-qualified Caribbean sides often struggle against established European nations in their return tournaments, yet Haiti's qualification pathway—winning the Concacaf play-offs—demonstrates competitive depth within their confederation. Scotland's squad depth in midfield and attack remains a structural advantage, though their defensive record under current management has drawn scrutiny from Scottish Football Association observers.

Key variables for traders include squad announcements in late May, when injury status of Scotland's Premier League contingent will crystallise, and any late coaching adjustments. Haiti's preparation schedule and access to European-based players—critical for their competitive standing—will become clearer as the tournament approaches. Weather conditions in North America during June could also influence match dynamics, particularly given Haiti's tropical climate adaptation versus Scotland's temperate baseline.

Methodology

This page reviews Haiti vs. Scotland across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.