Masoud Pezeshkian out by 2026?

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Market context

Masoud Pezeshkian assumed Iran's presidency in August 2024 following a contested election and the death of his predecessor Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash. The 69-year-old cardiac surgeon and former health minister represents the pragmatist faction within Iran's political system, positioned between hardliners and reformists. His tenure occurs amid escalating regional tensions, economic pressures, and internal factional disputes over nuclear negotiations and sanctions policy.

Iranian presidents face removal through several mechanisms: impeachment by parliament, health incapacity, or forced resignation under pressure from the Supreme Leader or security apparatus. Historical precedent shows vulnerability—Mahmoud Ahmadinejad faced impeachment threats in 2011, whilst Mohammad Khatami navigated constant institutional obstruction during his 1997–2005 presidency. Pezeshkian's pragmatist positioning makes him a potential target if hardliners gain parliamentary strength or if regional escalation demands a more confrontational figurehead. The 36% implied probability reflects meaningful but not dominant removal risk over the 24-month window.

Key catalysts include parliamentary elections scheduled for March 2025, which could shift the balance toward hardliners and increase pressure on Pezeshkian's agenda. Health developments warrant monitoring given his age and cardiac background. Any major escalation in Israel–Iran tensions or breakthrough in nuclear talks could trigger either consolidation around his leadership or demands for replacement. Reuters reported in November 2024 that hardline factions were already mobilising against his proposed cabinet appointments, signalling institutional friction that could intensify ahead of the election cycle.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.