Bitcoin price on June 12?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves on the Binance BTC/USDT closing price at noon Eastern Time on 12 June 2026, using the 1-minute candle data from the exchange's official feed. The settlement window closes at 16:00 UTC that same day, allowing a four-hour window after the noon ET snapshot for final price confirmation.

Bitcoin's intraday volatility at specific timestamps has historically reflected broader market conditions rather than predictable patterns. The noon ET close carries no particular significance in trading calendars—it falls mid-morning in London and early afternoon in Asia—meaning the price snapshot depends entirely on concurrent news flow, options expiry dynamics, or macroeconomic releases. Previous Bitcoin markets settling on specific times show wide distributions across all price brackets, with no clustering around particular hours. The 0% implied probability suggests traders view this as an information-free event or have simply not engaged with the market's mechanics.

Key catalysts between now and June 2026 include US Federal Reserve policy announcements, which typically move risk assets sharply; any major regulatory developments from the SEC or international bodies; and spot Bitcoin ETF flows, which have become material price drivers since their 2024 approval. Scheduled events like the Bitcoin halving (expected April 2024, though already past) or major institutional adoption announcements would likely dominate intraday price action. Traders should monitor whether significant economic data releases are scheduled for 12 June 2026 itself, as these often trigger volatility spikes at precise times.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on June 12? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.