Which NFL players will be traded?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The NFL trade deadline falls in early November each year, though mid-season swaps remain uncommon relative to other major sports. Players are occasionally moved during the off-season or in response to injury crises, but the 2026 window extends through July, capturing only the pre-season period when rosters are largely locked. Most trades occur when teams reassess after poor starts or when injury forces a reshuffle; standalone player moves during summer months are rare unless a franchise undergoes unexpected upheaval or a star requests out.

Historical precedent suggests that mid-summer trades—outside the November deadline and off-season free agency—occur in roughly 2–4% of cases per player annually. Notable exceptions include Deshaun Watson's 2022 trade in February and Saquon Barkley's move to Philadelphia in March 2024, both driven by explicit team decisions to reshape rosters. The current 3% implied probability aligns with baseline expectations, reflecting the statistical rarity of summer movement.

Traders should monitor coaching staff announcements and injury reports through spring training, as unexpected departures or scheme changes can trigger mid-roster adjustments. Contract restructures and cap situations announced in May and June often signal whether a franchise intends to hold or move pieces. Beat reporters covering individual teams—particularly those covering cap management and front-office strategy—typically flag trade candidates weeks before any formal announcement. The absence of major off-season news regarding the listed player suggests stability, though surprise trades remain possible if performance concerns or locker-room issues emerge during pre-season camps.

Methodology

This page reviews Which NFL players will be traded? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.