Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The next US–Iran diplomatic meeting would be a notable continuation of the recent return to contact after years in which formal relations have not existed and dialogue has depended on intermediaries. A 0% crowd-implied probability suggests the market is pricing in either no meeting or no confirmed attendance by a specific listed person, but recent history shows that even after periods of escalation, the two sides have still found ways to talk through third countries and special envoys.[3][4]

For context, the current cycle matters more than the long freeze in relations. High-level negotiations began in April 2025 in Oman, led on the American side by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and on the Iranian side by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and further indirect talks were held in Muscat in February 2026 with Oman mediating.[2] Reuters-style reporting in the historical record also shows that both sides have sometimes shifted between direct and mediated formats, which means attendance decisions can hinge on who is empowered to appear rather than on whether talks are happening at all.[1][2]

Traders should watch for any fresh confirmation of venue, format, and lead delegations, because those details determine whether a named official is actually in the room. The most important catalysts are statements from Washington, Tehran, Oman, Qatar, or Pakistan, alongside any announcement tied to ceasefire implementation, sanctions relief, nuclear talks, or regional security follow-through after the June 14, 2026 halt in hostilities.[3] If either side names a lower-level envoy, or insists on indirect talks only, the chance of the specified individual attending would drop sharply.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.