Will US withdraw from NATO by 2027?

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Market context

The United States formally initiating withdrawal from NATO remains a low-probability event, with crowd-implied odds at just 5% as of June 2025, despite President Trump’s repeated public threats to leave the alliance. While Trump has claimed he can withdraw unilaterally, a 2023 law passed by Congress—spearheaded by Marco Rubio and Tim Kaine—explicitly bars the president from denouncing the treaty without a two-thirds Senate vote or an Act of Congress [2]. This legal barrier has effectively stalled any immediate move toward exit, even as Trump continues to criticise NATO allies for insufficient defence spending and unreliable partnership [2].

Historically, no member has ever withdrawn from NATO since its founding in 1949, and Article 13 of the treaty requires a one-year waiting period after a “notice of denunciation” is submitted to the US government [3]. The only comparable political pressure came in 2024 when Representative Thomas Massie introduced the “NATO Act” (HR 6508), which would compel the president to notify NATO of withdrawal under Article 13, but the bill has not advanced beyond introduction [1]. Traders should monitor upcoming congressional hearings on defence policy, any new statements from Trump regarding NATO, and potential shifts in Senate composition that could alter the feasibility of passing withdrawal legislation [2]. A formal announcement from the White House or a new bill in Congress would be the most significant catalysts for a rise in probability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Will US withdraw from NATO by 2027? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.