Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Vladimir Putin has held the Russian presidency since 2000, with a brief interregnum as Prime Minister from 2008 to 2012. Constitutional amendments passed in 2020 reset his term count, permitting him to remain in office until 2036. Removal or resignation would require either a sudden health crisis, internal coup, or external military defeat—scenarios with no clear precedent in post-Soviet Russian politics. The 9% implied probability reflects the low baseline likelihood of such an event within a 24-month window, given Putin's consolidated control over security apparatus, state media, and regional power structures.

Historical comparisons offer limited guidance. Mikhail Gorbachev resigned in 1991 amid Soviet collapse; Boris Yeltsin stepped down voluntarily in 1999 amid health concerns and political pressure. Neither scenario maps cleanly onto current conditions. Putin's grip on state institutions appears tighter than either predecessor's at comparable junctures. Forced removals of entrenched leaders typically require either military defeat, mass unrest, or factional splits within the ruling elite—none presently evident in Russian governance structures.

Traders monitoring this market should track developments in Ukraine's military situation, any public health incidents involving Putin, and signals of elite fracture within the Kremlin or security services. Announcements of constitutional changes, succession planning, or formal challenges to Putin's authority would move probabilities sharply. Reuters and Russian independent outlets including Meduza provide real-time reporting on Kremlin stability, though verification of claims about internal politics remains difficult given information control within Russia.

Methodology

We track Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.