Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 UEFA Champions League final on 30 May will pit Paris Saint-Germain against Arsenal at a neutral venue. PSG have won Ligue 1 consistently but remain inconsistent in European knockout football, whilst Arsenal have strengthened their squad depth considerably since 2024 and reached the quarter-finals last season. The 10% implied probability for an exact-score outcome reflects the inherent difficulty of predicting a specific scoreline in a single-leg final; across the past decade, exact-score markets in Champions League finals have typically settled at low frequencies, with most matches producing outcomes outside the top five predicted results.

PSG's recent form will hinge on whether Kylian Mbappé remains fit and engaged—the forward's availability has shaped their attacking output significantly. Arsenal's defensive solidity under their current setup, combined with their transition speed, creates a structural mismatch that could produce either a low-scoring contest or a multi-goal affair depending on which team controls possession. Coaching continuity matters here; any managerial change at either club between now and May would alter tactical preparation substantially. Monitor team news releases and official injury bulletins from both clubs in the fortnight before the match, as late absences of key midfielders or defenders often compress scoreline variance.

The settlement window closes at 16:00 GMT on match day, leaving no room for delayed reporting. Traders should note that penalty shoot-outs do not count towards settlement, meaning a 1–1 draw after 90 minutes would resolve as "Any Other Score" if the match proceeds to extra time and penalties.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.