Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 35.5 | 100% |
| O/U 37.5 | 100% |
| O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| O/U 41.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| NC State 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 45.5 | 97% |
| O/U 51.5 | 90% |
| O/U 53.5 | 84% |
| Spread -1.5 | 75% |
| O/U 43.5 | 75% |
| O/U 55.5 | 73% |
| Spread -2.5 | 72% |
| O/U 57.5 | 72% |
| Spread -3.5 | 59% |
| O/U 59.5 | 58% |
| Louisville O/U 23.5 | 58% |
| Spread -4.5 | 56% |
| O/U 61.5 | 55% |
| NC State O/U 23.5 | 55% |
| Spread -5.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 53% |
| NC State O/U 26.5 | 53% |
| NC State 2H O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| NC State 2H O/U 14.5 | 53% |
| Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| O/U 47.5 | 51% |
| O/U 49.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 51% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| O/U 67.5 | 50% |
| O/U 71.5 | 50% |
| O/U 73.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Louisville O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Louisville O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Louisville O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Louisville O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Louisville 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Louisville 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Louisville 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| NC State 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Louisville vs. NC State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Louisville vs. NC State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Louisville vs. NC State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Louisville 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Louisville 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| NC State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| NC State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| NC State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| NC State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| NC State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Louisville vs. NC State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Louisville vs. NC State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Louisville vs. NC State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| NC State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Louisville O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| O/U 63.5 | 39% |
| Spread -17.5 | 32% |
| Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| Louisville vs. NC State | 24% |
| Spread -13.5 | 23% |
| O/U 69.5 | 23% |
| Spread -1.5 | 20% |
| Spread -2.5 | 19% |
| Spread -14.5 | 19% |
| Spread -3.5 | 13% |
| O/U 75.5 | 13% |
| Spread -5.5 | 11% |
| Spread -4.5 | 10% |
| Spread -6.5 | 8% |
| Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Spread -13.5 | 4% |
| Spread -7.5 | 4% |
| Spread -16.5 | 2% |
| Spread -20.5 | 1% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Louisville 1H O/U 11.5 | 0% |
| Louisville 1H O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Louisville 1H O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| NC State 1H O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| NC State 1H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1H Moneyline | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to louisville vs. nc state. In the upcoming college football game between Louisville and NC State, scheduled for October 3 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Louisville" if Louisville win the game. This market will resol…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $740K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Louisville vs. NC State. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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