Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 35.5 | 100% |
| O/U 37.5 | 100% |
| O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| O/U 41.5 | 100% |
| O/U 43.5 | 100% |
| O/U 45.5 | 100% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| San Diego State O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Texas State 1H O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| Texas State 1H O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Texas State 1H O/U 15.5 | 100% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1H Moneyline | 100% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 100% |
| Texas State O/U 20.5 | 91% |
| Texas State O/U 23.5 | 63% |
| Texas State vs. San Diego State | 57% |
| Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 51% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| O/U 47.5 | 50% |
| O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| O/U 67.5 | 50% |
| O/U 71.5 | 50% |
| O/U 73.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Texas State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Texas State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Texas State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Texas State vs. San Diego State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Texas State vs. San Diego State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Texas State vs. San Diego State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Texas State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Texas State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Texas State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Texas State vs. San Diego State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas State vs. San Diego State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas State vs. San Diego State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Spread -16.5 | 28% |
| O/U 51.5 | 26% |
| Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| Spread -4.5 | 18% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| O/U 57.5 | 13% |
| Spread -3.5 | 12% |
| Spread -5.5 | 11% |
| Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| Spread -2.5 | 10% |
| Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| Spread -4.5 | 8% |
| Spread -6.5 | 8% |
| Spread -6.5 | 7% |
| Spread -5.5 | 7% |
| O/U 61.5 | 7% |
| O/U 59.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Spread -14.5 | 3% |
| O/U 63.5 | 3% |
| Spread -10.5 | 2% |
| Spread -7.5 | 2% |
| Spread -13.5 | 1% |
| Spread -17.5 | 1% |
| O/U 69.5 | 1% |
| O/U 75.5 | 1% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 0% |
Market context
Texas State vs. San Diego State — current market-implied probability: 100%. In the upcoming college football game between Texas State and San Diego State, scheduled for October 3 at 10:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Texas State" if Texas State win the game. This market…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $709K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Texas State vs. San Diego State. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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