Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sport Prediction Pick polygram.ink |
79% | 21% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Sport Prediction → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
79% | 21% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Sport Prediction → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Sport Prediction → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Sport Prediction → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Sport Prediction → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Sport Prediction.
Active sub-markets
| Match Winner | 79% YES | 21% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Market context
The Upper bracket quarterfinal between 9z and Sharks in the Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs takes place on 27 May at 1:30PM ET in a best-of-three format. Both teams qualified through earlier rounds of the South American regional circuit, where 9z have maintained stronger map pool consistency and firepower depth. Sharks have shown vulnerability against top-tier opposition in recent weeks, particularly on midrounding and utility denial, though they remain competitive in the region's second tier.
The 67% crowd probability favours 9z, a positioning that aligns with their recent tournament placements and head-to-head record. In comparable South American derbies at this stage of ranked playoffs, the higher-seeded team has converted roughly 70% of the time when facing a team ranked two tiers below. 9z's current roster stability—no recent in-season changes—contrasts with Sharks' reported coaching adjustment in April, which typically requires four to six weeks for full integration. Historical precedent suggests teams mid-transition struggle most in high-pressure knockout fixtures.
Traders should monitor team announcements through 26 May for any player absences or last-minute roster confirmations. Stake's official broadcast schedule confirmation matters; delays beyond the 7-day window trigger a 50-50 resolution. Recent reporting from ESL's South American desk noted 9z's improved anti-eco execution, a metric that often determines BO3 outcomes when map bans favour the stronger team. Sharks' recent scrim results against regional challengers remain unpublished, limiting visibility into their current form trajectory heading into the match.
Methodology
This page reviews Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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