Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the Counter-Strike 2 upper bracket semifinal match between Inner Circle Esports and Sharks, scheduled for 08:00 ET on 24 June 2026 at the Super DraculaN LAN. With crowd-implied probability at 50-50, the market treats this as a coin flip, yet historical precedents suggest such odds often mask sharp form disparities. In their previous BC Masters Championship clash, Inner Circle defeated Sharks 2-1 despite losing the opening map on Mirage, demonstrating resilience in deciders [2]. Comparable LAN semifinal cases show that teams with recent momentum—like Inner Circle’s 67% winrate over the past month—frequently outperform static 50% expectations when facing opponents in slump, such as Sharks’ three consecutive losses at IEM Cologne [3].

Traders should monitor two key catalysts before settlement: map veto tendencies and lineup stability. Inner Circle heavily bans Inferno (93% of recent matches), limiting their flexibility, while Sharks’ vulnerability on Anubis (41% winrate) could be exploited as a decider map [3]. Additionally, Sharks’ recent slump includes three straight defeats, raising questions about morale or coaching adjustments, whereas Inner Circle’s full starting roster remains intact with no reported absences [3][5]. No official roster changes have been announced as of 24 June, but any late substitution for Sharks—particularly in their weak Nuke or Anubis roles—would significantly shift the probability [3]. Watch for pre-match press statements from either team’s coach regarding tactical adjustments, as these often precede decisive map picks in high-stakes BO3s.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.