Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

MOUZ and Inner Circle face off in the Lower Bracket Round 1 of The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs, a Best of 3 series scheduled for 4:00 AM ET on 24 June. The market currently implies a 0% chance of MOUZ winning, a stark divergence from Strafe’s user polls, which favour MOUZ with 74.2% of votes, and Bo3.gg’s analytics, which project a 2–0 victory for MOUZ[1][5]. This probability gap mirrors historical cases where crowd sentiment in regional qualifiers overcorrects against teams with lower earnings ranks but superior recent form; MOUZ’s 67% winrate over the last month and three consecutive wins contrast sharply with Inner Circle’s 0% winrate in the same period, despite Inner Circle’s higher longer-term baseline[1].

Traders must monitor MOUZ’s roster stability and Inner Circle’s potential coaching adjustments, as both teams have not met in the last six months, making head-to-head data unavailable[1]. MOUZ’s vulnerability against top-20 opponents, evidenced by their recent drop to Virtus.pro, is a critical dependency, while Inner Circle’s struggle against mid-tier competition (losses to ranks 12, 24, 25) suggests they may falter under qualifier pressure[1]. No official announcements on roster changes or coaching shifts have been released yet, but Hawk Live’s live score feed confirms the match is underway as of 08:00 GMT, with Map 1 in progress[3]. The settlement window closes on 24 June 2026 at 14:00 UTC, and any forfeiture or walkover will resolve the market to the winning team[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.