Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo

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Market context

Auger-Aliassime and Tabilo are scheduled to meet in the opening rounds of Roland Garros on 1 June 2026. The Canadian sits at a career-high ranking around 15th, whilst the Chilean has climbed steadily into the top 30 following consistent performances on clay throughout 2025 and early 2026. The 65% crowd probability favours Auger-Aliassime, reflecting his superior ranking and deeper Grand Slam experience, though Tabilo's clay-court form has improved markedly over the past eighteen months.

Head-to-head records offer limited predictive value here; the pair have met only twice on tour, with Auger-Aliassime winning both encounters on hard courts in 2022 and 2023. Clay presents a different surface profile entirely. Tabilo's recent trajectory—reaching ATP 250 quarter-finals at Buenos Aires and Santiago—suggests he enters Roland Garros with genuine confidence on his preferred surface. Auger-Aliassime, conversely, has struggled to translate his hard-court ranking gains into consistent clay results, with early exits at Madrid and Rome in 2025 signalling vulnerability on slower courts.

Traders should monitor team announcements regarding coaching changes or injury status through late May. Auger-Aliassime's fitness record remains solid, but any late withdrawal or surface-specific preparation adjustments could shift the market materially. Weather delays are possible given Roland Garros' June scheduling; the settlement window extends to 8 June, providing a seven-day buffer before the 50-50 tie-resolution clause activates.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.