ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Scotland and Ireland will meet in the women's ICC T20 World Cup on 13 June 2026. The current market probability of 100% YES suggests traders are pricing in near-certainty that one team will defeat the other, rather than a tie or match abandonment. Given the settlement window closes on 20 June—a week after the scheduled fixture—the market allows time for any administrative delays or fixture rescheduling, though no such disruptions are presently flagged by the ICC.

Historically, Scotland and Ireland have competed in T20 internationals with mixed results. Ireland's women's programme has developed more rapidly in recent seasons, with stronger domestic infrastructure and consistent international exposure. Scotland, whilst improving, has faced resource constraints that affect squad depth and preparation consistency. The 100% YES probability reflects confidence that the match will proceed as scheduled and produce a decisive outcome under standard playing conditions, with minimal expectation of a tied result requiring a Super Over.

Traders should monitor ICC fixture confirmations and any squad announcements closer to June 2026, particularly regarding injuries to key players or coaching staff changes. Recent reporting from ESPNcricinfo has tracked both teams' preparations for the tournament cycle, including their performance in qualifying rounds and warm-up matches. Weather forecasts for the venue will become relevant in the final week before play. Any official statement regarding ground availability, visa delays, or player availability could shift market pricing, though the current 100% reading suggests these contingencies are not currently weighted as material risks by the market.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.