Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the Lower bracket semifinal 2 match between Infinite Gaming and FOKUS in Counter-Strike 2, originally scheduled for 8:00 AM ET on 25 June 2026 at the Super DraculaN Season 1 tournament. Historical precedents for matches with a 0% crowd-implied probability on the "YES" side (Infinite winning) are rare in this bracket, as lower-bracket semis typically feature at least one upset when a lower-ranked team faces a higher-ranked opponent; however, when a team ranked 106 (Infinite) faces a team ranked 61 (FOKUS) [4], the probability often skews heavily toward the higher-ranked side unless recent form indicates a collapse. In this specific case, the 0% probability suggests the market has already priced in a decisive loss for Infinite, mirroring past instances where a 45-point ranking gap resulted in a 2–0 sweep for the higher-ranked side [3].

Traders should monitor immediate announcements regarding roster changes or key absences for both squads, as FOKUS’s world ranking of 61 [4] implies a stable core, whereas Infinite’s ranking of 106 [4] suggests potential volatility. Recent results show FOKUS lost 0–2 to Infinite in a prior encounter [3], which contradicts the current 0% probability and indicates a potential market anomaly or a significant shift in team form since that match. Watch for official updates from the tournament organiser or beat-reporter sources like GosuGamers [4] regarding any delays beyond the seven-day window, which would trigger a 50–50 settlement. The settlement window ends 15:00 UTC on 25 June 2026, meaning any unresolved delay will resolve the market to a tie.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.