Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-3.5) vs BakS eSports (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BakS eSports (-3.5) vs Virtus.pro (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-9.5) vs BakS eSports (+9.5) | 48% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs BakS eSports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-3.5) vs BakS eSports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-3.5) vs BakS eSports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-6.5) vs BakS eSports (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: BAKS (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BakS eSports (-6.5) vs Virtus.pro (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BakS eSports (-9.5) vs Virtus.pro (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-9.5) vs BakS eSports (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-6.5) vs BakS eSports (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-12.5) vs BakS eSports (+12.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-6.5) vs BakS eSports (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
Market context
Virtus.pro’s quarter-final run at CIS LAN Championship #6 has already been answered on the scoreboard: they beat BakS eSports 2-1 in the semifinal slot listed for 30 July, with the result posted as finished at 12:50 UTC. That makes the current crowd-implied 0% YES price a stale pre-match signal rather than a live assessment of the fixture itself, and it should be read against a series that was expected to be best-of-three at playoff stage, where a single map can swing the market sharply.[1][2][4]
Historically, Virtus.pro have been the more established regional side in this event, finishing top of CIS LAN Championship #5 and going on to win the final 2-1, while BakS eSports were a much lower-ranked opponent in the #6 bracket listings.[13][4] Comparable market setups in this tournament have tended to favour Virtus.pro strongly when they arrive with recent wins intact, which matches the wider form picture in the available pre-match data showing Virtus.pro winning four of their last five and BakS three of their last five.[4][15]
For traders, the main catalysts are now administrative rather than competitive: whether the bracket is formally updated to reflect the finished result, whether any official protest or replay notice appears, and whether the settlement logic is triggered by the match being recorded as completed inside the window.[1][4] If a market feed has lagged behind the live result, the key dependency is the organiser’s official match status rather than any new roster or coaching news, because no credible report in the current results points to a late lineup change or absence affecting the outcome.[1][4]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs BakS eSports (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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