Tunisia vs. Japan - Exact Score

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Market context

Tunisia meet Japan in a World Cup group-stage match in Monterrey, with the market pricing a precise scoreline at just **3% yes**. That is consistent with a fixture where the draw and low-score outcomes matter more than any single exact result: FIFA’s match centre lists the game as a straight first-stage meeting in Monterrey, and ESPN’s pre-match market shows Japan favoured on the moneyline with a fairly modest total, which leaves room for several narrow score combinations rather than one dominant exact score.[6][5]

Recent form points in different directions but still frames the exact-score market as a long shot. Goal’s preview says Japan have taken four wins and a draw in their last five, scoring seven and conceding two, while Tunisia are reported as arriving in poor form.[1] Flashscore adds that Tunisia’s opening defeat triggered a coaching change, with Hervé Renard brought in after Sabri Lamouchi was dismissed, and that Tunisia have lost their last three matches by an 11-1 aggregate.[3] In comparable cases like this, exact-score markets tend to be driven by whether the favourite wins cleanly or the underdog drags the match into a tighter, lower-scoring pattern; Japan’s unbeaten run and Tunisia’s instability make a Japan win or controlled draw more plausible than a specific high-frequency scoreline.[3][7]

The main catalysts are team-news and whether Japan can keep its attacking structure intact. Flashscore reports Takefusa Kubo is out with a knee issue, while Tunisia are listed without fresh injuries, and both Goal and FIFA’s match page indicate that confirmed line-ups were still pending in the build-up.[3][6][1] If Japan rotate less than expected, or if Tunisia’s new coach tightens the shape quickly, the exact-score board could shift towards 0-0, 1-0 or 1-1; if Japan’s form carries through, 2-0 and 2-1 become the more relevant clusters.[1][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.